Catalonian Referendum

On the 6th October, 42% of the population who can vote came to vote on Catalonian independence; where 90% of voters voted for independence. What is the argument for Catalonian independence? There is a strong pro-independence sentiment which remains after Spanish Dictator Franco destroyed Catalonian independence. Despite Catalonia making up only 16% of the overall Spanish population Catalonia represents 25% of all Spanish exports and 23% of all Spanish industry. Catalonia also has its own regional language.

The referendum was declared illegal by the Spanish Constitutional Court and voters were met with violent opposition from state. This has dramatically increased the Catalonian pro-independence movement as resentment towards the national government has grown due to the way Mariano Rajoy’s government handled the situation.

What happens now? There are several possible outcomes:

The Catalan government could retract its pledge to move toward unilateral independence and decide to discuss with the Spanish government a new financing system for the region as well as further autonomy in other aspects. Mr Montoro had previously stated that the central government was willing to make concessions if Catalan retracts the unilateral independence declaration.

However, Catalan leaders have already made clear that they are past negotiation, which makes this scenario unlikely.

Another possibility would the central government ignores the threat of Catalonian independence, and hands the issue solely onto the Spanish Constitutional Court. This would lead to possible legal and financial penalties from the Court of some of the pro-independence Catalan leaders. However, this would lead to no increase in major tension between Madrid and Barcelona.

The last foreseeable outcome would be political tensions rising even more which could consequently lead to the triggering of Article 155. This would lead to early elections in Catalonia. A recent poll suggests that the pro-independence parties may then lose these elections… Furthermore there is then a risk that opposition parties may use the opportunity for the fall of the PP government. However, at some point, Mr Rajoy may call a snap election himself.